Volume 22, Issue 1 (Spring 2025)
Sci J Iran Blood Transfus Organ 2025, 22(1): 54-62 |
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Abdolrahimzadeh H, Naderi N, Gheibi Z, Kasraian L. Forecasting Blood and Blood Product Demand: A Step Towards Optimal Resource Management in Trauma Patients. Sci J Iran Blood Transfus Organ 2025; 22 (1) :54-62
URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-1565-en.html
URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-1565-en.html
Abstract: (493 Views)
A B S T R A C T
Background and Objectives
Severe bleeding due to trauma remains one of the leading preventable causes of mortality. Ensuring the timely and accurate availability of blood and blood components poses a major challenge in healthcare centers. This study aimed to forecast blood and blood products demand in trauma patients at Shahid Rajaee Hospital in Shiraz and assess the accuracy of these prediction to enhance resource and paitent outcome .
Materials and Methods
This cross-sectional analytical study collected data on the request and consumption of blood, platelets, and plasma units among trauma patients during 2017-2020. The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series model was applied to forecast blood product demand for 2021–2022. To assess the prediction accuracy, the mean number of predicted units was compared with actual requests and usage using an independent t-test.
Results
During the study period, the average consumption of blood and platelets was 6,266 and 1,697 units, respectively, with no significant differences observed. Plasma consumption averaged 3,356 units, showing a slight increase. The predicted mean request for blood units was 10,790, closely aligned with the actual mean of 9,276. Similarly, the predicted and actual platelet requests were 1,781 and 1,891 units, respectively. The predicted plasma request (4,262 units) exceeded the actual request (3,189 units). The predicted cryoprecipitate request (279 units) showed no significant difference from the actual mean of 348 units.
Conclusions
The ARIMA time-series model appears to provide reasonably reliable forecasts of blood and blood product demand based on historical patterns. This method can enhance planning and optimizing resource management, helping to minimize strategic shortages and waste of blood products.
Background and Objectives
Severe bleeding due to trauma remains one of the leading preventable causes of mortality. Ensuring the timely and accurate availability of blood and blood components poses a major challenge in healthcare centers. This study aimed to forecast blood and blood products demand in trauma patients at Shahid Rajaee Hospital in Shiraz and assess the accuracy of these prediction to enhance resource and paitent outcome .
Materials and Methods
This cross-sectional analytical study collected data on the request and consumption of blood, platelets, and plasma units among trauma patients during 2017-2020. The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series model was applied to forecast blood product demand for 2021–2022. To assess the prediction accuracy, the mean number of predicted units was compared with actual requests and usage using an independent t-test.
Results
During the study period, the average consumption of blood and platelets was 6,266 and 1,697 units, respectively, with no significant differences observed. Plasma consumption averaged 3,356 units, showing a slight increase. The predicted mean request for blood units was 10,790, closely aligned with the actual mean of 9,276. Similarly, the predicted and actual platelet requests were 1,781 and 1,891 units, respectively. The predicted plasma request (4,262 units) exceeded the actual request (3,189 units). The predicted cryoprecipitate request (279 units) showed no significant difference from the actual mean of 348 units.
Conclusions
The ARIMA time-series model appears to provide reasonably reliable forecasts of blood and blood product demand based on historical patterns. This method can enhance planning and optimizing resource management, helping to minimize strategic shortages and waste of blood products.
References
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