Volume 22, Issue 1 (Spring 2025)
Sci J Iran Blood Transfus Organ 2025, 22(1): 56-65 |
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Abdolrahimzadeh H, Naderi N, Gheibi Z, Kasraian L. Forecasting Blood and Blood Product Demand: A Step towards Optimal Resource Management in Trauma Patients. Sci J Iran Blood Transfus Organ 2025; 22 (1) :56-65
URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-1565-en.html
URL: http://bloodjournal.ir/article-1-1565-en.html
Abstract: (295 Views)
accurate blood and blood product supply is a key challenge for healthcare centers. This study aimed to predict the demand for blood and blood products at Rajai Hospital in Shiraz during the period from 2017 to 2021.
Materials and Methods
This cross-sectional analytical study used the ARIMA time series model to forecast the demand for red blood cells, platelets, and plasma for trauma patients for the next two years. Predictions were based on blood demand data from the previous four years. The predicted average number of blood bags and blood products was compared with actual request and consumption averages using an independent t-test.
Results
During the study period, the average consumption of blood and platelets was 6,266 and 1,697 units, respectively, with no significant difference observed. Plasma consumption averaged 3,356 units, showing a slight increase. The predicted mean request for blood units was 10,790, which was comparable to the actual mean of 9,276. Similarly, the predicted and actual platelet requests were 1,781 and 1,891 units, respectively. The predicted plasma request (4,262 units) was higher than the actual request (3,189 units). The predicted cryoprecipitate request (279 units) was not significantly different from the actual mean of 348 units.
Conclusions
Blood demand for trauma patients can be estimated based on past consumption data, enabling precise planning for blood supply. Improved forecasting can help prevent shortages and reduce wastage of blood products.
Materials and Methods
This cross-sectional analytical study used the ARIMA time series model to forecast the demand for red blood cells, platelets, and plasma for trauma patients for the next two years. Predictions were based on blood demand data from the previous four years. The predicted average number of blood bags and blood products was compared with actual request and consumption averages using an independent t-test.
Results
During the study period, the average consumption of blood and platelets was 6,266 and 1,697 units, respectively, with no significant difference observed. Plasma consumption averaged 3,356 units, showing a slight increase. The predicted mean request for blood units was 10,790, which was comparable to the actual mean of 9,276. Similarly, the predicted and actual platelet requests were 1,781 and 1,891 units, respectively. The predicted plasma request (4,262 units) was higher than the actual request (3,189 units). The predicted cryoprecipitate request (279 units) was not significantly different from the actual mean of 348 units.
Conclusions
Blood demand for trauma patients can be estimated based on past consumption data, enabling precise planning for blood supply. Improved forecasting can help prevent shortages and reduce wastage of blood products.
References
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